CDC predicts national surge in COVID-19 cases

Vashon cases countinue to climb

By VashonBePrepared • May 18, 2022 1:30 am
(Infographic from CDC article) <em>Proximity Really Matters:</em> The red and orange business class seats at the front of this airplane were not good for those passengers. The red seat was the index COVID infection. The orange seats were occupied by people who got COVID because they were sitting nearby. This study was done back in the days when masks were not required, which is where we find ourselves today after the lifting of the masking requirement. So, this illustration taken from the Jetelina blog post shows why multiple layers of protection are a good idea in order to stay safe, including masking in case you happen to sit near one of those index patients, especially if they are not wearing a mask. They could be exposing you to COVID before the air they are breathing is run through the airline air filtration.
(Infographic from CDC article) Proximity Really Matters: The red and orange business class seats at the front of this airplane were not good for those passengers. The red seat was the index COVID infection. The orange seats were occupied by people who got COVID because they were sitting nearby. This study was done back in the days when masks were not required, which is where we find ourselves today after the lifting of the masking requirement. So, this illustration taken from the Jetelina blog post shows why multiple layers of protection are a good idea in order to stay safe, including masking in case you happen to sit near one of those index patients, especially if they are not wearing a mask. They could be exposing you to COVID before the air they are breathing is run through the airline air filtration.

Editor’s Note: Read COVID updates by VashonBePrepared in Spanish and English at tinyurl.com/yan39zeh.

Vashon COVID Monitoring: Vashon Case Count Still Surging

For the past month, Vashon case counts have been averaging around six new cases per day reported to the Medical Reserve Corps (MRC). That’s six times the number of daily cases the island saw in early March, although only a fraction of the daily number at the height of the Omicron spike in January. The daily count rises and falls above the average, sometimes significantly. For example, the MRC counted 13 new cases on a single day during this reporting period.

The data pattern of recent weeks continues, with cases reported to MRC running about twice the weekly count recorded in the data dashboard of Public Health – Seattle & King County (PHSKC). Even so, this is still likely to be an underreporting of actual cases, since reporting of positive home tests is voluntary. Please continue the excellent community work you have been doing by helping MRC monitor more accurate COVID levels on the island. Call the MRC helpline if you have a positive test: (844) 469-4554.

King County’s case rate has now moved farther into the CDC yellow/medium community risk rating it reached several weeks ago. The PHSKC dashboard puts the county-wide new case rate at more than 327 cases per week per 100,000 people. That’s about more than 50% higher than the benchmark of 200 the CDC uses to classify a community as yellow/medium-risk. At the same time, COVID-related hospital admissions have been rising across King County and were up roughly 30% in the last week. However, at this time, hospital admission rates are still below the level that would put King County in the top orange/high-risk classification.

CDC Predictions: National Double Whammy of Surges

The CDC has been tracking the current rise of COVID cases around the country and also forecasting what we may expect to see later this year. The result: CDC predicts two national surges.

Over the next four weeks, the CDC projects a significant increase in national hospital admissions and deaths. The forecast predicts that 42 states and territories will experience increased numbers of hospitalized patients and deaths. The projection takes into account the increased spread of infection due to the lifting of state mask mandates and other COVID control measures. Also, the CDC says the highly contagious Omicron subvariants such as BA.2 and BA.2.12.1 have been driving the national surge.

Looking to the fall and winter, the CDC predicts 100 million new COVID infections to come later this year at the national level. The same factors described above apply, but they will be exacerbated by the cold weather that seasonally drives people inside to poorly ventilated gathering spaces. The projection takes into account waning immunity from vaccines, the rise of new Omicron strains, and a weary population that wishes COVID was over and opts out of COVID safety precautions.

What you can do: Be vaccinated and boosted. Consider the risks of any gatherings you plan to attend, based on your own and your family’s health, the number of people at a gathering and the size of the space, whether it’s indoors or outdoors, whether folks will be eating and drinking (and therefore unmasked across a table), and whether you’ll wear a mask. Test yourself at home in the hours before attending any indoor gathering and ask others to test as well. Stay home if you test positive or have any symptoms.

Governor Inslee: Vax Mandate Continues

Governor Jay Inslee says he will lift the vaccine mandate “when it makes sense.” Inslee was referring to proclamation 21-14.1. It requires state employees, higher education, childcare, and K-12 education employees, and most health and long-term care providers to be fully vaccinated as a condition of employment.

During a recent appearance at the Crosscut Festival, Inslee told the audience the vaccine mandate will continue for now. Noting the rising case numbers in the region, the Governor said Washington’s pandemic approach has been successful: “If we had the same death rate as, say, Mississippi, we would have had another 19,000 people lose their lives in Washington.” To date, 12,820 people have died from COVID-related illnesses.

Evusheld: New COVID Prevention for Immune Compromised

If you or someone you know faces a high risk of COVID because of a compromised immune system, a new preventative medicine called Evusheld may be available to help. There’s a tight definition of compromised immune system eligibility. Examples include people on immunosuppressive medications for cancer or autoimmune disease; people with organ or bone marrow transplants; and patients with certain infections such as HIV. Evusheld is a combination of two monoclonal antibodies that target the spike protein. It thus provides protection in a way that’s similar to a vaccine for people whose compromised immune systems may not respond sufficiently to a vaccination. Evusheld must be taken before exposure and is not available for someone currently infected. Supplies may be limited. The medicine requires a prescription from a healthcare provider. It is administered in two injections with follow-up doses every three to six months. It’s free.

Airplane Air and You

Lots of folks are flying now, eager to get back out there on family trips and summer vacations. But what’s the science on COVID risk for flying? Don’t airliners have super air filters and thus reduce the chances of COVID? On the other hand, what about the guy sitting just back of you hacking with a cough and no mask? And what’s the COVID risk of getting to and from the airport, not to mention hugging your cousins at the family reunion in one of those states where nobody wears masks?

There’s quite a bit of science being published on the risk of COVID on airplanes, and an easy Google search will help you find studies and give you the information you need to make a personal risk assessment. For example, here’s a blog post by “Your Local Epidemiologist” Katelyn Jetelina who has a knack for collecting studies and boiling them down into plain talk: bit.ly/AirplaneAirSummary

Latest Vashon COVID Statistics

23 = New cases reported since the last weekly report (46 new cases in 14 days)

887 = Total COVID cases for Vashon residents since the pandemic began.

16 = Patients hospitalized since the pandemic began.

5 = Deaths since the pandemic began.

93.4% = percentage of Vashon residents age 5+ who have completed the primary series, compared to 85.8% of the King County 5+ population.

65.7% = percentage of Vashon residents age 5+ who have added a booster shot to their completed primary series.

For King County, the PHSKC dashboard for the last 30 days says people who are not fully vaccinated are:

1.1 times more likely to get COVID.

6 times more likely to be hospitalized for COVID.

11 times more likely to die of COVID.

Source: Public Health — Seattle & King County (PHSKC) and Vashon EOC. PHSKC adjusts statistics from time to time as data is refined during its quality control processes. These statistics may not include all recent Vashon cases, due to the lag in posting of data to PHSKC. Home testing data may also be missing because there is no comprehensive system to collect it. Hospitalizations may include some patients who tested positive for COVID on admission for other reasons.

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